The rapid growth of compensation expenditure has once again focused the industry's attention on the "payment peak". On the evening of May twenty _ fourthTronblockchainThe General Administration of Financial Supervision announced the operation of the insurance industry in the first four months of 2024. According to regulatory data, the original insurance premium income of the industry increased by 4% in the first 4 months compared with the same period last year.Tronblockchain.63%. In sharp contrast, the original insurance payment expenditure increased by 43%.Tronblockchain.55%.
With interest rates continuing to decline on the one hand and a sharp increase in compensation on the other, you can imagine the pressure on both ends of the balance sheet of the insurance industry this year. So, what is the reason for the "scissors gap" in the growth rate of premium income and compensation expenditure in the insurance industry? Will this trend continue?
The growth rate of compensation far exceeds the premium.
In the first four months of this year, the original premium income of the insurance industry was 2.54 trillion yuan, according to the General Administration of Financial Supervision. Of this total, the original premium income of property insurance is 479.239 billion yuan, and that of life insurance is 2.06 trillion yuan. In terms of compensation, the original insurance of the insurance industry paid 902.713 billion yuan in the first four months.
However, from the point of view of the growth rate, the premium income and compensation expenditure of the insurance industry are not balanced, and there is even a "scissors gap". Data show that in the first four months, the industry's summary of the original insurance premium income increased by 4.63% compared with the same period last year, in sharp contrast to the 43.55% increase in original insurance indemnity expenditure.
From a vertical comparison, it is no accident that this situation has continued since the beginning of the year. A reporter from the Beijing Business Daily combed and found that in the first two months, the insurance industry's indemnity expenditure increased by 58.8% compared with the same period last year, and in the first three months, the insurance industry's indemnity expenditure increased by 47.8%. Although the growth rate slowed down, it remained at a high level. Moreover, the rapid growth of compensation mainly occurs in the field of life insurance. According to the regulatory disclosure data, the reporter calculated that the life insurance indemnity expenditure increased by 68% in the first four months, and the property insurance indemnity expenditure increased by 13%.
Why is the insurance industry's payout increasing rapidly this year? Li Wenzhong, deputy director of the Rural Insurance Research Institute of the Capital University of Economics and Economics, told Beijing Business Daily that the rapid growth of life insurance claims should be mainly related to the rapid growth of life insurance products. In 2013, the market-oriented reform of life insurance rates in China led to the rapid growth of life insurance premiums, and the average duration of life insurance policies in China is about ten years, which means that the rapid growth of life insurance policies will expire in recent years. Secondly, according to the data released by the Emergency Management Department, the direct economic losses caused by natural disasters in China in the first quarter of this year are the highest in the same period in the past five years, which may lead to an increase in property insurance payouts and affect payouts in the field of life insurance.
Zhou Shuran, chief architect of Qixianqin (Shanghai) Medical Engineering Company, added that in 2024, when part of the dual insurance expired for more than five years, the "deposit relocation" of financial insurance such as life insurance also led to a lot of increase in compensation. In addition, the increase in medical and health costs after the epidemic, accompanied by an increase in insurance payments.
It may continue in the short term.
It is common that the growth rate of short-term compensation expenses is higher than that of insurance premiums, but if the growth rate of compensation expenses continues to be higher than that of insurance premiums, it will bring greater compensation pressure to insurance companies.
If you stretch the timeline, this trend is already apparent in 2023. In 2023, China's insurance industry realized the original insurance premium income of 5.12 trillion yuan. According to the comparable caliber, the industry summary of the original insurance premium income increased by 9.13% over the same period last year.TronblockchainThe original insurance compensation expenditure of the insurance industry was 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.94 percent over the same period last year.
How long will the rapid growth of indemnity expenditure of the insurance industry last in the future? Li Wenzhong believes that the changes in compensation of property insurance companies are mainly affected by insurance accidents, especially major accidents and disasters. In terms of life insurance, especially life insurance, the current rapid growth of compensation brought about by the rapid growth of business in the past will be difficult to change in the short term, and I am afraid it will continue for some time.
For insurance companies, long-term high compensation expenses will undoubtedly increase operating pressure, and even affect cash flow. Zhou Shuran predicted that the overall insurance claims will remain at a relatively high level in the next 1 to 2 years. With the economic recovery and the arrival of a new round of insurance golden period, large-scale insurance payments in the past tend to be stable, coupled with more standardized management of insurance companies, the medium-and long-term insurance compensation rate will decline, and gradually move towards the rationalization range.
Li Xiumei, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily.