bestvideopokersites| Everbright Strategy: How to view the current market transaction congestion?

editor2024-05-26 20:12:504Family

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Source: Everbright Securities (rights protection)

There was a correction in A-share market this week.

Affected by factors such as the decline in risk appetite, there was a correction in the A-share market this week. The A-share market pulled back this week, with the main broad-based index falling generally. Among the major broad-based indices, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell the least this week, falling by 1.Bestvideopokersites.97%, while Kechuang 50 had the biggest decline, with a drop of 3.Bestvideopokersites.61%. In terms of industry, coal, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing increased the highest, while light industrial manufacturing, real estate and other industries fell significantly.

How to treat the current market transaction congestionBestvideopokersites?

Transaction congestion is a noteworthy short-term influencing factor of stock price. The degree of trading congestion can be used to measure the trading heat of the plate, thus indicating risks or potential opportunities. Too low trading congestion usually indicates opportunities, and if there is an appropriate catalytic stock price, it is likely to rebound, while excessive trading congestion is difficult to maintain in the long run, which often indicates the potential risk of pullback.

bestvideopokersites| Everbright Strategy: How to view the current market transaction congestion?

In the process of applying the transaction congestion degree, the signal of the transaction congestion degree can be divided into the left side and the right side. The left signal means that the transaction congestion rises or falls to the extreme position from the normal range, while the right signal means that the transaction congestion returns to the normal range from the extreme position, which is confirmed by one more step compared with the left signal. may be able to better grasp the return on investment.

Risk signal: the core of the choice between the left and the right lies in whether there is a major change in the logic of the industry. If there is no significant change in the logic of the plate or industry, it is difficult for the plate to produce a sustained market, so just pay attention to the signal on the left; if there is a major change in the logic of the plate or industry, the increase in trading congestion may mean that the market has just begun. the future trading heat may last for a period of time, when the right signal can better grasp the investment returns. Historically, the signal on the right side of the growth plate is often more important, and the left side of the pro-cyclical plate may be more worthy of attention.

Bullish signal: the right signal of most plates deserves more attention than the left signal. From the perspective of historical data, for most sectors and industries, including cycle, advanced manufacturing, consumption, technology, financial real estate, China Securities dividend, after the right signal is triggered, the probability of rebound and the extent of rebound are often greater than the performance after the signal is triggered on the left. This is because the rise in stock prices requires catalysis, and the trigger of the signal on the right may be related to the emergence of catalysis.

What is the current trading congestion in each sector? The trading congestion of the TMT plate is currently at a historical low, and there may be potential investment opportunities; the congestion of financial and real estate transactions has risen rapidly recently, but it has not triggered the risk signal, and the market is expected to continue to be interpreted under the catalysis of policies; although the trading congestion of the cyclical plate is high, there are no risk signals in the past 20 trading days, which can still be actively followed. The current trading congestion in the high dividend sector is too high, and the risk signal on the left was triggered on May 20, and the follow-up trend may be more volatile; consumption, advanced manufacturing and pharmaceutical trading congestion are all in a moderate position, trading factors do not need to pay too much attention to in the short term.

The market is expected to fluctuate upward, and high dividends and pro-cyclical are worthy of long-term attention.

Recently, positive real estate policies have occurred frequently, and the A-share market is expected to fluctuate upwards. Since May, weak fundamentals have led to volatility in the market as a whole, and real estate is one of the drag items of weak economic fundamentals. The introduction of the real estate policy will help to promote the high-quality development of the real estate market, boost market confidence and promote the recovery of market sentiment. The A-share market is expected to continue its strong performance.

In the allocation direction, high dividends and pro-cyclical are worthy of long-term attention. Under the current market environment, the high dividend sector is worthy of long-term allocation. The policy is also actively guiding dividends, which will boost the situation in the high dividend sector. However, the trading congestion of the high dividend sector is currently on the high side and can be allocated after the share price or trading congestion falls. In addition, the domestic economy is expected to continue to repair in the future, and the pro-cyclical plate is also worthy of attention.