Business Society, May 25
According to the business community commodity market analysis systempokergovideosThis week (May 20-25), the domestic PTA spot market fluctuated upwardpokergovideosAs of May 25, the average market price in East China was 5946 yuan/ton, up 0.0% from the beginning of the week.pokergovideos.52%。
There have been many changes in domestic PTA units this week. Dongying and the 2.5 million-ton PTA unit were overhauled for about 40 days on May 6. Yisheng New Materials '3.3 million-ton device was overhauled for about 20 days on May 16. Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 million-ton unit was stopped for one month on May 23. Innios's 1.25 million-ton PTA unit in Zhuhai has been suspended for four days since May 20 and resumed operations over the weekend. Currently, the industry's PTA operating rate is around 75%, and there will be no equipment changes next week.
At the beginning of the week, due to improved oil demand expectations and a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, the geopolitical situation was tense. Multiple factors pushed up international oil prices, which boosted the PTA market. However, due to the Federal Reserve's minutes indicating a possible delay in interest rate cuts and the unexpected increase in U.S. oil inventories, oil prices have adjusted downward for multiple trading days. As of May 23, the settlement price of the main contract for U.S. WTI crude oil futures was reported at 76.pokergovideos. 87 US dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was reported at US$81.36/barrel, of which WTI crude oil fell to a nearly three-month low.
In the PX market, Malaysia's 550,000-ton PX unit was restarted earlier this week, and the facility was shut down on May 9 due to a failure. At the same time, Saudi Arabia's 1.34 million-ton PX unit also suffered accidental shutdown. It had previously operated unstable and operated at low load. Since May, supply pressure has eased due to frequent accidental parking of equipment.
Downstream mainstream polyester factories reduce production in a concentrated manner, have strong intentions to support the market, and appropriately replenish raw materials. Under the seasonal off-season of the terminal, downstream buying intentions are still limited. As the weather becomes hotter near summer, the decline in polyester start-ups has become a general trend. Demand for PTA has weakened, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. Falling demand will strengthen the impact of PTA oversupply and create a negative impact on PTA prices.
Analysts from the business community believe that as crude oil prices fall, cost support for PTA weakens, downstream polyester factories are more likely to reduce production, and demand for PTA will decline. At the same time, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether unplanned maintenance of PTA units increases under low processing costs. Overall, there is no good news on fundamentals, and PTA prices are more likely to fall.
(Article source: Business Society, author: Xia Ting)